The twittersphere is an interesting place to see the Labour Party turn in on itself (used to have to go to meetings for that – no more).
The main complaint is that Ed Milliband has failed to impress the electorate and that Labour has not pulled away from the Tories in the polls. Both these things are true but, for me not unexpected, but then I was active in the Thatcher years and have seen the country move away from one term Government of the 60s and 70s to a more stable view around giving a party the chance to get things done.
Firstly why is Labour only neck and neck with the tories. As someone who spent a lot of time on the door step I know that many people were unhappy with the Labour Party in Government, some of this was classic ‘time for a change’ but was also coupled with some anger (Iraq, 10% tax, economic collapse – people had 13 years to decide which issue had upset them).
While Labour people seem to think that the voters realise that the economic collapse was due to the inevitable periodic implosion of capitalism. Many voters still see the Labour Government as at least partly responsible (which one could argue that the failure to regulate the City or to deal with bonus excess until the horse had bolted). The general election was not that long ago and people don’t switch their views that quickly, even those suffering under the austerity programme.
This is also partly the reason why the Tories are maintaining their popularity (above general election levels). People who support their analysis of the economic problem are happy to support them, there are others who do see them as trying to sort out the mess left by the previous Government.
The Tories have also been partly shielded by the Liberal Democrats whose polling collapse has almost returned us to 2 party politics. The view seems to be – ‘we expect the Tories to be bastards, they are doing what tories do’ indeed some people who are not conservatives are privately pleased that they are tackling ‘excess’ in public expenditure and the welfare system. The lib dems are another matter, having sold themselves as fluffy, left of centre, tree hugging pavement politicians they have found themselves branded as traitors and turncoats who have rejected their principles for power. This is not entirely fair, Nick Clegg did promise ‘savage cuts’ and did give interviews to magazines like the Spectator putting forward a right of centre agenda – unfortunately for him people weren’t listening to that and so the u-turn on tuition fees – a totemic lib dem policy – and lib dems fronting Tory policies has done them in. This means the people who like the Government’s policies are crediting the tories and those that don’t are blaming the lib dems.
So why isn’t Ed Miliband having an impact. Wouldn’t Labour be better if David had won. I think that whoever the Labour party had at its head would make little difference. As the opposition 3 years away from the general election the media and the public largely see the Party as irrelevant. It could have perfect policies and a fantastically charismatic leader, but it can’t do anything – not yet anyway – so its pronouncements are largely meaningless. Any policy the Labour Party had now is almost certainly not going to be in the manifesto – the world and the economy is moving and the answer today will be wrong in 2015.
The only interesting domestic politics is the dynamics between the three parties of the coalition – the tories, the lib dems and of course the completely barking tory fringe.
So Labour people if you want to make a difference stop refighting the last leadership election and engage with your communities and work places and build a foundation for 2015.
Working For the Clampdown 